October 30, 2002

PREVENTION EQUALS SURVIVAL: THE LESSON AMERICA HAS NOT YET LEARNED
By Dr. Saul B. Wilen Consulting Editor, Government Security Times

Another new report released October 24, 2002 from a high powered panel of former government officials, leaders from business, and academicians has again concluded that America continues to be unprepared to deal with another terrorist attack, “dangerously unprepared.” This report particularly underscores, although previously well documented, the lack of preparedness by our communities to effectively participate. Former U.S. Senators Hart and Rudman chaired the panel. Their January 2001 U.S. Commission report predicted the likelihood of devastating attacks.

Even this newest of reports emphasizes reaction and response strategies, not prevention, which is the key to America’s survival.

Terrorism whether or not directly related to foreign organizations has returned to American soil as demonstrated by the recent sniper shootings in the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area. The three week killing rampage in October 2002 resulted in mounting fear, disruption of daily living, societal instability with loss of trust, and negative economic impacts.

The anti-terrorism measures instituted by the United States over the past 13 months are predominantly based on reactive strategies and are devoid of any prevention focus because policy makers do not understand prevention. This was totally predictable and was confirmed in recent Congressional testimony from the intelligence community and in the most recent Council on Foreign Relations Report. The billions already spent and the additional billions slated to support homeland security, although necessary, have not created the environment of awareness, education, and diligence on the part of all levels of government, the people, and the private sector to institute a coherent and cooperative prevention strategy to defeat terrorist threats.

In such an atmosphere where complacency has returned and America continues to believe in the myth of its “shield of invincibility” could we have considered or anticipated the “America Held Hostage by a Sniper with a Rifle” scenario?

How simple it would be for terrorists who have demonstrated their willingness to use weapons of mass destruction even at the loss of their own lives to put a rifle with a target scope in the hands of a sniper and terrorize millions of people almost single-handedly. Consider ten such snipers distributed in metropolitan areas around the U.S. and the terror paralysis that would result. Now add to this a terrorist commitment to immediately replace each sniper caught or killed with a new one operating in a different geographic area. America’s law enforcement and intelligence resources would be overwhelmed. The results of such scenarios would certainly be consistent with the goals of the foreign terrorist plan to destroy America.

Be aware and prepared for the unexpected! The events of 9/11 should have indelibly etched this admonition into the consciousness of America. But, this is not the case. Ignorance can no longer be today’s excuse.

Where does the world’s only superpower now stand in its global war on terrorism one year plus after the events of September 11, 2001? America was caught unaware and unprepared despite repeated warnings. America’s vulnerabilities were unmasked. Commitments were made that such events would not be allowed to happen again. A war on terrorism was declared and the forces of homeland security were set into motion. The efforts instituted have been primarily those relating to reaction, response, and recovery. Where are the prevention strategies to be found that have been talked about for more than a year?

The initial resolve of the American people began to wane by three to four months after 9/11, and then dissipated. Even the emotional outpouring at the first anniversary of the 9/11 attack disappeared within two to three weeks. This disengagement is significantly due to government policies that exclude the people from being fully educated and actively involved in the anti-terrorism process. This engrained exclusion is evident at all levels reaching to the depths of local law enforcement, which sees itself primarily dependent on profilers, criminologists, psychologists, and forensic experts. They have lost sight of the fact that the community is the ultimate source of viable information leading to solutions.

A review of some major actions and events since September 11, 2001 provides a clearer perspective to help answer the question - Has anything really changed?

• The “victories” of Afghanistan are distant memories, but today’s efforts of the Taliban and al-Qaeda to disrupt and regain a foothold are increasing. America’s commitments to Afghanistan even though not completed, have shifted. Iraq is the new focus for our military efforts against terrorism. Is Iraq today’s diversion being used to eclipse the homeland security and the global war on terrorism disarray?
• America’s leaders continue to discuss and debate the obvious need for information sharing, which is the key to homeland security and terrorism prevention strategies. What are we waiting for? The technology exists but the problem is creating the organizational structure. The vital importance of this project has been known since September 11 and even before. This crucial piece requires the 100 plus federal agencies with responsibilities for homeland security, state and local authorities, and the private sector be connected. A year plus has already been lost.
• CIA Director George Tenet on October 17, 2002 announced to the congressional intelligence committees that al-Qaeda has reorganized; it intends to attack Americans overseas and on U.S. soil; and the threat situation is as serious as in the months leading up to the September 11 attacks.
• The latest Homeland Security Plan has abandoned the emphasis of “the homeland will be secure when the hometown is secure.” This abandonment is not surprising. The Federal government finally realized that this strategy was solely responsive and reactive, and therefore extremely expensive. The word prevention has surfaced even though the Homeland Security Plan lacks any prevention focus. The details of the Department of Homeland Security hoped to be the solution, remain tied up in the Congressional bureaucracy, and the General Accounting Office has estimated that it will take ten or more years for this department of 170,000 federal employees to get all of its diverse functions to operate. What does this mean for streamlining intelligence analysis?
• Recent attacks on American troops in Kuwait and the bombings in Bali Indonesia killing more than 180 people, mostly Australian tourists, emphasize the worldwide viability, readiness, and ability of the terrorists.
• Reports of the FBI and the Department of Justice show that American al-Qaida cells primarily made up of U.S. citizens exist and active recruitment continues.
• The functions of the INS continue to be frustrated. Tens-of-thousands of illegal aliens continue to enter the U.S. unchallenged. Even considerations to shorten lengths of stay in the United States under Visa restrictions to improve control are halted by the competing interests of the travel industry.
• Transportation security efforts have almost exclusively been applied to the airlines and airports. However, a large percent of airplane cockpit doors remain un-secured; the deadlines for required inspection of all baggage have passed without compliance; and security systems at airports are still easily breached; but the two questions for years asked of passengers about packing and being in control of the baggage disappeared instantaneously. Visible and viable security for trains, boats, mass transit, trucks, and other forms of transportation is non-existent.
• American ports remain unsecured. Only two percent of cargo containers are inspected and port authorities have admitted that larger numbers of inspections are not possible. However, no alternative systems for security seem to be in place.

Future terrorist attacks are being planned, and a prevention weapon is necessary. Such a weapon must utilize unique computer-based systems that integrate information, effective communication, education, and resources management in real-time, using the multiple existing databases, and allowing for the early detection and analysis of trends. The needed information is available – but it has not been integrated to be of real use. Top-down and bottom-up efforts must be simultaneously instituted and operate effectively for prevention.

America is presently at a pivotal juncture in dealing with terrorism. Is the terrorist course the way it must be? Will the terrorists win no matter what the U.S. does? The resolve to commit resources and efforts for prevention is the essential element. The outcome will be determined by America’s commitment and the prevention actions taken by its government and people.