TERRORISM PREVENTION, SHERLOCK HOLMES, AND FORENSIC APPLICATIONS
By Saul B. Wilen, M.D.

At this time in history it is important for forensic sciences specialists and experts to understand forensic processes in terms of prevention strategies. They must be able to appreciate and master the skills, data tools, and systems available to make the transition from law enforcement/crime solving to prevention. These transition concepts are especially important in dealing with the issues of terrorism. Sherlock Holmes serves as your guide for this adventure.

Sir Arthur Conan Doyle through The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes, created a super-sleuth capable of applying forensic processes and skills to solving perplexing crimes of his day. However, these skills (trained observation, inferential relationships, deductive reasoning, critical thinking, information integration and analysis, and problem solving) are as vital today as then. Technological advances have further enhanced the sensitivity and scope of these skills.

In the last adventure, The Final Problem, Sherlock Holmes reveals to Dr. Watson the identity of his contemporary personification of evil. “For years past I have continually been conscious of some power behind the malefactor, some deep organizing power which for ever stands in the way of the law, and throws its shield over the wrong-doer…For years I have endeavored to break through the veil…and…it led me, after a thousand cunning windings, to ex-Professor Moriarty…He is the Napoleon of crime…He sits motionless, like a spider in the center of a web, but the web has a thousand radiations…his agents are numerous and splendidly organized…the central power which uses the agent is never caught – never so much as suspected…This was the organization which I devoted my whole energy to exposing and breaking up.”

Were Holmes functioning today, he might view terrorists and their threats as radically different from those of the past. By applying inferential relationships and deductive reasoning he might see these changes not only as representing a shift in methods and tactics, but more significantly as a shift in their primary intent. He would infer that the terrorists were no longer primarily interested in spreading an ideological or geo-political message, but as radical fundamentalists, believe that “their cause is just, God is on their side, and any and all actions are justified.” Holmes would further deduce that terrorists have raised the stakes and no longer expect to survive their murderous attacks. This fatalistic mentality has made previously unthinkable acts possible. He would tell Dr. Watson that these acts clearly result in fear, create economic vulnerability, and divert resources. Finally, Holmes would conclude that the disruption of American security, daily activities, and economic stability are the ultimate goals of the terrorists.

Prevention in forensic efforts today remains the major deficiency that it was in the processes applied by Sherlock Holmes. Prevention is defined as those actions instituted to defeat a threat before any impact can occur. All other categories (protection, preparedness, intervention, response/reaction) relate to efforts after a threat is manifest and/or ongoing. Prevention strategies, tools, and weapons are based on four pillars: information horizontally integrated in real-time and readily capable of data trend delineation; effective communication; educational strategies applied at all levels; and resources management. These come together to define a prevention weapon that can be used in terrorism prevention and applied universally to other situations. The thinking processes of law enforcement are based primarily on solving crime once it has occurred. A logical transition and re-orientation is necessary to bring prevention concepts into the routine functions of forensic science to be applied to terrorism prevention.

In his letter to Dr. Watson at the conclusion of The Final Problem, Sherlock Holmes pens, “I write these few lines through the courtesy of Mr. Moriarty, who awaits my convenience for the final discussion of those questions which lie between us…I am pleased to think that I shall be able to free society from any further effects of his presence.” This presents a first glimpse into Holmes’ thinking process transition toward prevention.

Terrorist threats are real. America is extremely vulnerable and no system is exempt. Prevention is the critical element offering the best strategy for defeating terrorism.